This is a collection of fables drawn from human history all demonstrating how certain human societies have either achieved happiness through the wise management of their population and environment or have brought down divine nemesis upon themselves by ignoring overpopulation and the need to protect the environment. Each one of the tales is quite well down.

The seams between the tales are terrible visible and one shakes one's head at the seemingly arbitrary method used to select the stories. In other words, this is a hastily thrown together work designed to capitalize on the momentum in the market place created by Mr. Diamond's previous work: Guns, Germs and Steel.

Read and enjoy it if you have already read the vastly superior Guns, Germs and Steel. If you buy it in a marked-down bin or borrow it from a public library you will resent the crash commercialism of it much less.

След “Пушки, вируси и стомана” нямах никакво желание отново да чета Даймънд, докато не изрових в дъното на едно шкафче това забравено дебело издание, отлежало кротко едни 6-7 години. Спогледахме се, и се разгърнахме.

Оказа се по-интересно от очакваното. Даймънд тук определено се появи в амплоато си на еколог (Природата има значение!) и малтусиснец (ресурсите растат в аритметична прогресия, а населението - в геометрична) едновременно. Тезата му е близка до реалностите днес: провалените общества изчерпват и оглозгват наличните си природни ресурси като ято хищни скакалци без капка мисъл за бъдещето, и в резултат се озовават в пустош, която се пренаселва с гладни и впоследствие озверели човешки същества. Краят е удавен в кръв и войни. Успешните общества правят обратното - щадят природата било в малки, децентрализирани и сплотени общности, или в силни и централизирани държави със стабилна и ефективна законова рамка по въпроса.

Даймънд се е захванал да го онагледи с примери от миналото и настоящето. Някои са силни и нагледни като теорията му за обитателите на Великденския остров, чиято висока култура деградира и се изражда в кръвопролития, канибализъм и загуба на умения след като отсичат и последното си високо дърво и сами се лишават от инструментите, които природата им дава (канута за далечни плавания, обитаващи животински видове, обилни реколти). “Открилите” ги през 18 век холандци заварват бледи, жалки подобия на хората, издигнали величествените статуи моаи. Тази теза ми прозвуча доста смислено и беше разгърната убедително. За разлика от други примери, като например за доста по-голямата цивилизация на маите, където за основен виновник за срива на цивилизацията през 10 век е посочена сушата. Твърде много уговорки, предположения и спекулации размиват картината.

В настоящето примерите на Даймънд за по-малки общества отново са по-силни. Неочакван и много тъжен е погледът към геноцида в Руанда, където освен колониализма, старата етническа вражда между хуту и тутси и зловещото масово насилие в една рухнала държава, като основен фактор се посочва страхотното пренаселване върху разграбена и обедняла земя. Да, но някъде по пътя отпаднаха многобройните съпътстващи фактори от немалтусианско естество… Друг съвременник в унищожаването на природата - Китай - е глобално явление само по себе си, защото рано или късно китайските проблеми просто стават световни при население от 1,3 милиарда души. Но материалът на Даймънд е повърхностен и може да се прочете във всяко реномирано списание.

Добрите примери отново са силни за малкия мащаб - като малките новогвинейска общности, упражнявали лесовъдство с “питомни” дървета казуарини. Но за големи мащаби като средновековна Япония е като да откриеш под вола теле. Да, шогуните въвеждат квоти в дърводобива и производството на предмети от дърво (един бедняк няма право да му се изработи малка кутийка от скъпа дървесина, един даймио обаче може да си построи замък с такава, но пък въди горска плантация). Обаче Даймънд отрича ролята на културните фактори като източноазиатската обич към природата, пропита в духовните течения и религии. Да не говорим, че на места има потресаващи твърдения като това, че ужасяващата индийска кастова система е страшно природосъобразна, защото…възпитава дългосрочен интерес към природата! Ако си в кастата на рибарите и няма мърдане към друга каста - щеш, не щеш щадиш рибите, защото те са занаята и на пра-пра-внуците ти! По-идиотска теза от иначе интелигентен писател не бях чела.

Последната част е вид обобщение, което е доста несвързано с предните примери. Има интересни моменти като например защо металодобивът всъщност е по-голям замърсител от нефтодобива. Но тази последна част спокойно би могла да е отделна кратка книга и нищо няма да загуби, просто е кратък обзор сама по себе си.

Посланието за ролята на природата е ценно, но по мое мнение анализът често е нагоден към основната теза, вместо тезата да е резултат от анализа. Пропуснати са усложняващи политически, културни, религиозни фактори. Самата теза иначе е смислена и благородна.

——
▶️ Цитати:

“…има два типа решения, които могат да предопределят и крайния изход (успеха или провала): това са дългосрочното планиране и своевременната преоценка на наличните ценности.”

“…няма друга планета, към която да се обърнем за помощ или където да изнесем проблемите си.”

“…времената се менят, обществото се изправя и пред този избор - кое от миналото си струва да бъде запазвано и с кое да се раздели, ако иска да има и бъдеще.”

“…най-често обществата не се и опитват да решат проблема, макар да го виждат ясно.”

“…китайските проблеми автоматично се превръщат в световни.”

“…хората се дразнят от обясненията, защото ги приемат като извинения.”

Letto nel 2023 risulta un po' datato

Onvan : Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed - Nevisande : Jared Diamond - ISBN : 143036556 - ISBN13 : 9780143036555 - Dar 608 Safhe - Saal e Chap : 2004

My objections to Collapse are nearly identical to the ones I voiced in my review of Guns, Germs, and Steel. Jared Diamond's thesis that past societal collapses have largely been due to five main factors is a good thesis, and he makes a compelling argument. However, Collapse is poorly written and edited; Diamond reiterates his points so much that it feels somewhat patronizing.

Diamond analyzes the collapse of six past societies: the Easter Islanders, the Pitcairn and Henderson Islanders, the Anasazi, the Mayans, and the Vikings. He then compares these societies to modern societies (both societies that face problems and ones that have solved some problems which previously led to collapses). All of these analyses are very well-thought out, well-presented arguments that support Diamond's overarching thesis (if somewhat belaboured). One of the most useful aspects of these repetitive case studies is how Diamond points out which of his "five factors" influenced each society's collapse. (The five factors, by the way, were: environmental damage, climate change, decrease in interaction with friendly foreigners, increase in hostilities from foreigners, and how the society responds to environmental concerns.) For instance, deforestation played the major role in causing the demise of the Easter Islanders; on the other hand, the Inuit survived in Greenland because they adapted to their environment in a way that the Eurocentric Vikings refused to do. By pointing out these differences, Diamond elevates this book above the typical "well, some societies had problems, so they collapsed" tone of a TV documentary. Each case study is interesting in its own right and well worth further investigation--Diamond provides plenty of suggestions for further reading.

Much of the book is a treatise on the fragility of our biosphere. Diamond attempts to convince us that he's unbiased when it comes to environmental concerns, claiming he is neither pro- nor anti-environment. I doubt that any reader would believe this claim after the first chapter, and certainly no one could accept it after the end of the book. However, while Diamond is pro-environment, he demonstrates that he is not necessarily anti-business. In fact, he spends much of his time trying to show that businesses can and will clean up their act if pressured into doing so or shown how it will benefit them. I approve of this stance, just as I approve of the fact that Diamond carefully avoids "environmental determinism"--i.e., that a society's surroundings totally dictate the fate of a society.

After examining past societies, Diamond looks at modern societies, both what's working and what isn't. He takes an excruciatingly detailed look at Montana, but I don't fault him for this, since it's apparently an area with which he has much experience. Once again, he extols Papua New Guinea as an excellent country full of awesome people--I skimmed that part, having read enough such praise in Guns, Germs, and Steel. I actually found the chapter on modern Australia the most interesting; I hadn't reflected before on the problems, which in hindsight are logical consequences, caused by the colonization of this rugged continent. Collapse is a reminder that even so-called "First World" countries have their share of problems; Diamond's framework is universal rather than restricted only to poor or isolated societies.

The last part of the book concerns what we can do to stem the rising tide of problems that could cause future societal collapses. This is particularly important, since Diamond notes that globalization means a collapse affects the entire world, even if it is localized to a single country or even continent. Diamond throws out some suggestions and also refutes common "lines" supplied by opponents to the call to arms he's taken up. After the rousing chapter on Australia, this part was lacklustre at best. If it weren't for the monotonous emphasis on supporting Diamond's thesis, I would think I was reading a novel with a climax and then a disappointing resolution! To be fair, however, the final chapter was interesting if not entertaining.

I'm more pessimistic than Diamond at this time. Then again, as I write this I'm only 19, much less mature and experienced than most people who ruminate upon these problems, particularly Diamond himself. Unfortunately, I've already come to the conclusion that Diamond and others are attempting to communicate now: we cannot continue like this. The Earth cannot support our population with our current methods of managing our resources and the current level of impact we have, as individuals, on the planet. Something's gotta give, and it may just be our quality of life--something we pampered First World citizens are very reluctant to surrender, much less reduce. Diamond finds some hope in the fact that, with better management of our resources, we can sustain both our current population and quality of life while still reducing our impact on the planet itself. It's up to us, the public, to push governments and businesses to take the necessary steps.

Collapse was as interesting an argument as I had hoped, although this comes with the caveat that it's a poorly written book. There are certainly worse ways to spend an afternoon (or in my case, a couple of afternoons), and if you're a fan of Diamond's previous work, you'll find this tolerable. If this is your first Diamond book, I think that Guns, Germs, and Steel was marginally better. However, the subject matter of Collapse is still fascinating, and Diamond does it justice.

Although I only gave this book three stars, I can recommend it a little bit over that. I found it interesting, but not quite as compelling as I might have if I wasn’t already familiar with some parts of the story. I took graduate classes in International Relations, specializing in China as well as international political economy, so I didn’t find any surprises in the abstract background to Collapse.

Some very intriguing parts were the stories of collapse of vanished societies, as many have noted in other reviews. But also quite enjoyable were the explanations for why others did not collapse, especially the near-miss of the Tokugawa Shogunate as prosperity almost led them to devastate their forests — it is almost an accident of history that the Japanese home islands aren’t as barren as Easter Island.

The chapter on modern Australia was also quite eye-opening. After reading this litany of miseries, all I can say to my Australian friends is “Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.” I think everyone living on the edge of the Pacific Ocean needs to spend more time studying the ENSO — El Niño Southern Oscillation. It will certainly have a major impact on California, too.

Perhaps my favorite portion of the book were Chapters 14 and 15, in which Diamond explores societal responses to these threats.

Chapter 14 is titled “Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions?” and begins with a tidy discussion of decision theory and cognitive biases. I suspect a professional Decision Theorist might scoff at the oversimplification and lacunae of his explanation, but Diamond can place it in a riveting real-world context that cements how a careful analysis can help us understand such twisted and paradoxical situations. (In this I am reminded of the fascinating classic n  Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisisn.)

This chapter allowed him to answer a question he was asked by a student: “When that person cut down the last palm tree on Easter Island, what on earth could they have been thinking?” turns out to have a rather obvious answer: by the time that last palm was cut down, centuries of deforestation had already taken place, and the crucial cultural importance of those trees would have long since disappeared.

Chapter 15, “Big Business and the Environment,” is also quite absorbing. Diamond contrasts the very different environmental impact of two oil fields, and continues with the particular problems of hardrock mining, coal mining, logging and fisheries. His inquiry into why some corporations and industries are are more amenable to social pressure casts a minor hopeful note into the symphony of despair.

There are a few complaints that need to be aired.

First, Diamond could really use a forceful editor with an eye towards clarity. The professor is very prolix, with a pedantic tendency to repeat himself. For example, every time Diamond referred to palynology, he felt compelled to explain it again. In such a large book which undoubtedly took many years to compose, this is understandable — but not in the final draft. That’s why editors are supposed to employed. Perhaps asking him to be succinct is asking too much, but it would be nice to nudge him in that direction.

Second, while his “Further Reading” appendix is welcome, it doesn’t excuse the lack of a bibliography, especially since index doesn’t seem to cover that appendix.

Finally, the book starts out on a weak note in Montana. His affection for the Bitterroot Valley is understandable, but its problems are nowhere near as engrossing and dramatic as those that follow, and the relevance of a struggling rural community tucked deep inside the world’s wealthiest nation makes it hard to understand its relevance. It would have been best left to personalize and clarify a concluding chapter, perhaps, although the chapter on Australia did a more than adequate job of showing how pressing the threats of collapse can be in a modern first-world society.

In the end, while this book was adequately absorbing, it didn’t bring me much closer to my quest. No book I’ve yet found has adequately discussed the question “How likely is it that the entire global civilization will collapse in the coming century, leading to centuries of a new ‘dark age’ of reduced life expectancy, welfare and technology?”
­

Guns, Germs and Steel occasionally felt like monday morning quarterbacking, but Collapse is superb. In GG&S, Diamond tried to explain how technologies that evolved in some places did not in others, how some communities thrived due to excess food and more advanced agriculture, while others, perpetually on the verge of starvation, had to devote all of their time to dealing with that and thus didn't have time for building the Parthenon. The argument was not airtight - his notion of what constitutes a reasonable amount of time to spend on gathering food could use a little sharpening, and he didn't approach work as part and parcel of culture, which it most certainly is. GG&S also overlooked a lot of crops available to people he strenuously argued had nothing to eat - for example, Acai in the Amazon Basin (a superfood which constitutes 45% of the diet of some locals) and others elsewhere.

In Collapse, Diamond examines how several ancient societies (Easter Island, Mangareva/Pitcairn Lapita, Maya, the Norse colonies in Iceland, Greenland, and Vinland) fell apart due to resource management issues, the environmental challenges faced by a few modern countries (Australia, Japan, China), and the best ways to avoid a tragedy of the commons-type situation that results in a drastically reduced standard of living for everyone. The author is breathtakingly impartial, sometimes to a fault; he laconically remarks, for example, that "George W. Bush remains unconvinced of the reality of global warming."

Overall, Diamond seems most worried about erosion, which he sees as a bigger problem than global warming because of the difficulty of replacing arable land, and the multitude of ways it can be destroyed. You can buy all the long-line-caught Chilean sea bass you want, and eat organic lettuce all day, and still have an awful impact on the environment because the soil in which the lettuce grows is a limited resource, as are the fisheries that produce the fish you buy, which also suffer from land degradation.

Diamond thinks that a lot of the resources we rely on have been made artificially cheap through subsidies and foolish government management of limited resources. He's right, but there is a conflict between egalitarianism and environmentalism lurking between the pages of this book: I don't think you can charge the right amount for energy or food or other essentials without further immiserating the poor. That's the unmet challenge of the environmental movement, the one this and most books on the subject dodge. Despite that, I'd wholeheartedly recommend Collapse for its details on everyday life in Norse Greenland and Easter Island alone, not just for the nuanced analysis.

In Collapse, Jared Diamond draws our attention to the following problems, which have "plagued" humanity throughout history.

1. Deforestation and loss of habitat
2. Overhunting
3. Overfishing
4. Soil degradation
5. Water management problems
6. Population growth
7. Increased per capita impact of people
8. Impact of non-native species

And now we face four more:

9. Human-caused climate change
10. The build up toxic waste
11. We're approaching the limits of the Earth's photosynthetic capacity
12. Energy shortages

There are societies that failed to resolve these problems and Diamond's thesis is they collapsed because of it.

Perhaps the most engaging example of this pattern is Diamond's discussion of the isolated Polynesians on Easter Island. They used all of their trees, which led to soil erosion, which led to food shortages, which led to cannibalism. We now live in a "globalized world," but perhaps we should say that we're finally realizing that we live on an island. It seems that we have yet to realize the demands we make on our island. **Update 2020: Much of what Diamond writes about Easter Island appears to have been debunked. See Bregman's Humankind for a summary that's written for the general public.**

I wish that I could just knock off one or two of those problems from Diamond's list, but I can't. Many of them are linked, so if we fail to respond to one, we fail to respond to several. At other times, we lean too hard on solving one problem and end up causing new problems. For example, many forests (Diamond refers to Montana, but I've read about this dynamic elsewhere) have been developed as cottage areas, so we do not allow fires or any logging. The buildup of old forest and underbrush makes for a tinderbox, which means that when fires do happen, they are massive. And putting them out is not free, either.

How do you gather political will to deal with a problem like this? We could try to log sustainably and selectively. Jaded by greenwashing, environmentalists are unlikely to trust any company. Cottage owners are certainly not going to recommend logging or allowing fires of any sort to threaten their investments. No politician can gather support, so every stakeholder is stuck.

Diamond further illustrates the role of ecological problems in societal collapses by comparing past societies that collapsed (as opposed to declined) throughout history. In each case, he methodically outlines how these societies destroyed themselves by failing to resolve ecological problems. It's pretty convincing, though I've become aware that archeologists dispute many of his claims.

I think there is a common concern for the environment. I'm not even 30, so perhaps I can't speak with a great deal of authority on the subject, but it feels to me that North America is obsessed with post-apocalyptic settings right now in 2011. If there is a "spirit" of a society that is translated in its literature, then I think it's safe to say that the bearded guy holding a "the end is nigh" sign is finally getting the mainstream audience he dreamed of.

It seems to me the real problem is that it is very difficult to minimize our impact on the environment. We can call upon America to lead the way, but they can't even manage their debt. In fact, the societies that Diamond relies on to illustrate that it is possible to limit deforestation, tend to be autocratic (though so were the societies that Diamond relies on to illustrate failure). Now, some NGOs have set up certification procedures that identify wood that was harvested sustainably, but other corporate commissions have set up their own certification bodies to confuse consumers.

Nevertheless, Diamond outlines reasons to be cautiously optimistic before concluding. Unfortunately, this may have been the least convincing part of Collapse.

So I'll close with the cynical words of Danny Archer from Blood Diamond.

"When was the last time the world wasn't ending?"

Usually, I find these words very soothing. Now I feel like the world always has been ending. It's just that until recently, humanity could only end one specific part of it at any given time. Now we're a global society.

I don't know what it is about Jared Diamond - I just can't seem to get as impressed by this man as I'm apparently supposed to be, Genius Award and all. The man needs an editor, for one thing: at least 200 pages of this 500-plus monstrosity were parenthetical tangents that belonged in footnotes. His work is often referred to as "staggering," which, I'm now convinced, refers not to his intellect so much as to the overwhelming quantity of minutae he presents the reader as if it were a substitute for analysis. It is staggering - and incredibly boring at points. I had to force myself to finish this book, and it took weeks - I usually devour good books in a matter of days.

There are fascinating details in here - all is not lost. I loved the sections dealing with the Maya, the Anasazi, Easter Island, and the successful anarchism of the New Guinea highlanders. However, I fear that anyone reading this book with the intention of understanding better how to avoid the global collapse we seem to be heading for will be sorely disappointed. His summaries and, ultimately, his thesis are weak and hidden within a snow flurry of excess detail.

Having enjoyed Guns, Germs and Steel a lot, I was excited to read Collapse. However, it ended up being a mixed bag for me.

The first half, in which he talks about ancient societies, their circumstances, why they failed and why they didn't change their behaviour, was extremely interesting and fascinating. I enjoyed reading about the Maya, Iceland, Greenland (even Vinland) and some Polynesian islands a lot, and I can definitely recommend the book if you want to find out more about their history and fate.
The only thing that I'd criticise is that after a while, it felt quite repetitive. Jared Diamond mentions the major reasons for the failure of societies pretty early on, and the following chapters felt to me like he was trying to prove his point over and over again.

The second half, which is about modern societies, couldn't hold my interest, mainly because I couldn't shake off the feeling that a lot of the information there must be outdated by now. The book was published in 2005, and a lot has happened since then. I constantly felt like checking the current situation online, and because of that, the book felt more like a chore than a fun and interesting read.

So, if you're interested in the general premise and don't mind a lot of research to understand the current situation, this book could be for you.

I did read at least half of this book. The section on Easter Island is one of the most memorable things I've read in the past few years, and I'd recommend it to anyone.

This book goes on my guilt shelf because shortly after he got to China, I got too depressed to continue. It's also a bit heavy (literally) for subway reading, and returning to New York from California with it combined with the prospect of learning about China's impact on the environment was just too much for this reader.... So Collapse is sitting on my real-life, non-virtual bookshelf with a JetBlue boaring pass marking my place, frozen in time like the artifact of some extinct civilization.

If I were really to make a comprehensive shelf of Books I Feel Like a Lazy Jerk for Not Having Read, Guns, Germs and Steel would also be on it.

I've just completed a second reading of this exemplary book of science writing. It's no joke to say I am doubly impressed.

Jared Diamond shows how careful reasoning can bring understanding while his love of the scientific investigative process pulls the reader into intimate contact with distant places and times that offer lessons for today. While his Guns, Germs and Steel is written in the same close analytical style, Collapse is the book Diamond was born to write.

His method investigates both failure and success to determine their causes. From what is learned our own modern world is surveyed to see what we can expect based on our current practice.

Human intelligence is no guarantee of group survival. People form societies having goals both material and emotional/moral that direct group behavior and that must meet the test of time in how the environment is handled. Being immersed in a society makes it difficult to see what appears to be right and proper at the time objectively. Being alive today gives the necessary psychological distance for us, if we have the skills of the author, to use the tools of science to examine the good moves or blunders of the past as dispassionately as possible. But as Diamond cautions us, we should take into account our removal from the scene before saying of failure, "how could they be so stupid?".

The title of this book attracts attention, but accounts of failure are only a part of what Diamond relates. After all, we are still here. Overall, he is able to propose certain factors, at least some of which come together in any specific situation to determine if a society will survive. A main point of the book is to show the reader how today's huge population and the worldwide interaction of humanity makes specific location beside the point. We are all on the road to success or failure together.

There's enough poignancy and drama for a novel. How is it that a heavily forested island, as Easter Island once was, comes to be barren of trees after humans, who are dependent on those trees, arrive? What are those huge stone heads for (they are actually full bodies with oversize heads) and why were every one of them that had been laboriously set in place deliberately toppled over? Believe it or not, the tools that were used to carve out the figures are still at the excavation sites as if they were suddenly dropped and abandoned. If you are in the least bit curious, this book will not only spark your interest but will satisfy you with the results of often laborious investigations, thousands of hours of work, by specialists in a number of fields.

The reader will be amazed at the techniques that are used to determine what happened long ago based on radio carbon dating or the detailed examination of ancient pollen, but even where objects are found positioned in relation to each other can tell a story. The author carefully but simply and quickly explains how each technique works. Like any good science writer, he wants the reader to know; to be part of an informed public.

Failure can come after an extended period of success. The Maya and the Norse settlers of Greenland continued for hundreds of years before the collapse of their societies in the face of environmental warnings they did not heed. The Norse, at the point of starvation as farming failed them, could directly observe the Inuit successfully fishing in kayaks, yet the Norse, no strangers to water, did not take up fishing. Diamond doesn't duck the obvious question, why?

As mentioned, we are still here and from the grocery store shelves appear to be doing fine, yet a host of issues threaten us and Diamond goes into detail on each. He speaks of himself as a cautious optimist. This book was written in 2006, 12 years ago (2018), so I thought I would investigate some of the issues Diamond mentions to see if things have improved, if measures are being taken to prevent our own planet-wide collapse.

From coral bleaching, world population increase, soil erosion and salinization, ground water depletion, deforestation and on through to CO2 reduction to address global warming I found little ground for optimism; all of these problems continue to increase driven by human demand.

We may not pull through despite knowing what is happening, but we definitely won't if we are ignorant, as is the American president. Collapse addresses that ignorance. It speaks to Santayana's warning that those who can't remember the past (ignorant of it) are doomed to repeat it. There were enough different independent societies at one time to allow for a failure here and there. We can't afford failure now.