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This is a fascinating and compelling book. I really want it to be true, though I can't really bring myself to believe it all.
The core target of this book is development economics: how to lift nations out of grinding poverty and bring them up to a non-horrendous standard of living. His core thesis (once you get past the self-congratulatory couple of introductory chapters) is that nations will lift themselves out of poverty, if only we can get them into a position where they can really trade and participate in the world market. As a fundamental proposition, that sounds reasonable to me, though I wonder whether, say, geographic barriers will block certain nations from ever really participating. Still, the basic idea seems plausible: if people are in a position where their effort turns into reward, then they will act so as to improve their lives.
His proposal is outlined in at a fairly high level here, but it boils down to: invest in lowering physical trade barriers (e.g., invest in roads, ports, airports, communications); invest in keeping people healthy and educated; and thereafter people will mostly take care of the rest themselves. And it will only cost 0.7% of the GDP of the first world. For twenty or thirty years.
Wooo. Big number. Still, not unattainable. Far less than we're paying to, say, try to stabilize Iraq.
Edit
So Susan called me on this statistic. So I checked. It turns out that we are currently spending almost exactly 0.7% of US GDP on the Iraq war. In fact, we're spending about 0.2% of the entire world's product (GWP) on the Iraq war. (Iraq is costing roughly $100 billion/year, gross world product is about $45 trillion/year.) Think about that. A measurable fraction of the product of the entire world. On one war in one country.
On one hand, it seems far, far better to spend that money on development (assuming it works, or even partially works) than on war. On the other, the amount we're spending on the Iraq war is coming uncomfortably close to bankrupting the US. Could we sustain that kind of financial outlay for the third world for twenty or thirty years? I doubt it. Not without a lot of agony that we're probably not prepared to suck up.
One could ask if it would be pure money down the drain, the way that the Iraq war is. Potentially, you'd get a lot out of the domestic side of the spending (domestic manufacture and workers for export to third world development programs and such). But that's like arguing that wars are good for the economy because of the business they create. Alternatively, it's possible that rising tides raise all ships and that helping the third world would pay off in turn for us. I certainly believe that reducing poverty and disease in the third world would pay off in terms of international stability and increased trade, in enough time. But the actual economic feedback (which is what will ultimately sell any plan of this scale, I think), is debatable.
But as long as I'm ranting anyway (in this entirely inappropriate venue), I should add a final statistic. The US currently spends about 4% of GPD on defense (not counting Iraq, which is by special appropriation, or black budget, which is not publicly accounted). That's more than the entire rest of the world combined (yes, including big scary nations like China). Our lowest military spending since WWII was at the end of Clinton's term, where it dropped to ~3% GDP. In my book, it would be entirely reasonable to drop the Iraq war, reduce military spending back to Clinton-era levels, spend the 0.7% on Sach's plan (assuming we believe it, or partially believe it), and still save money.
End Edit/Rant
Anyway, I can't fully buy into his plans, because I am skeptical about all "this will fix everything" plans. And because I think he is drastically underaccounting for the effects of, say, bad government, racial and tribal tensions, corruption, general cultural attitudes toward property and trade, societal view of the role of government, etc. Some of those will naturally be ameliorated under his plan. (It's amazing how much starvation seems to exacerbate people's tendency to kill each other.) But many are fairly core, and I am skeptical that better roads will magically make them vanish. Attitudes change very slowly, they do have big, measurable impacts on micro- and macro-economic evolution, and we have been way too stung way too often by neglecting them. (Oh, but of course this nation that has not been democratic in thousands of years of recorded history will instantly adopt democracy once we come in and show them the path of glory. I mean, it's an obvious idea, right? And they're crying out for it, right? Yeah.)
Still, I think that the points he makes are good and (partially) compelling. And there's evidence that they'll succeed to some degree -- e.g., I saw some convincing data that Africa was, by and large, doing a great job of growing and improving its general quality of life... Right up until the AIDS epidemic obliterated a huge fraction of its productive populace.
Anyway, even if his plan does not, in fact, eliminate poverty, simply reducing it would be a vast improvement in the state of the world. And I think that it has the potential for such a reduction. A lot of the ideas he proposes are things that I would advocate anyway (e.g., invest in health and reducing/controlling disease). So I would, overall, back his plan I think. How much good it will do, and how much we should really invest in it, are up for debate. But I think that his plans are clearer, more common sense, and generally seem more reasonable than a lot of the development non-plans we've seen over the past few decades.
So, while I have some reservations, I think that this book is definitely worth reading. It's thought-provoking, at the very least.
For an alternate point of view, I also recommend William Easterly's The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. It also discusses the morass of international development fiscal policy. A fascinating read in its own right. More on that later, when I have more time...
The core target of this book is development economics: how to lift nations out of grinding poverty and bring them up to a non-horrendous standard of living. His core thesis (once you get past the self-congratulatory couple of introductory chapters) is that nations will lift themselves out of poverty, if only we can get them into a position where they can really trade and participate in the world market. As a fundamental proposition, that sounds reasonable to me, though I wonder whether, say, geographic barriers will block certain nations from ever really participating. Still, the basic idea seems plausible: if people are in a position where their effort turns into reward, then they will act so as to improve their lives.
His proposal is outlined in at a fairly high level here, but it boils down to: invest in lowering physical trade barriers (e.g., invest in roads, ports, airports, communications); invest in keeping people healthy and educated; and thereafter people will mostly take care of the rest themselves. And it will only cost 0.7% of the GDP of the first world. For twenty or thirty years.
Wooo. Big number. Still, not unattainable. Far less than we're paying to, say, try to stabilize Iraq.
Edit
So Susan called me on this statistic. So I checked. It turns out that we are currently spending almost exactly 0.7% of US GDP on the Iraq war. In fact, we're spending about 0.2% of the entire world's product (GWP) on the Iraq war. (Iraq is costing roughly $100 billion/year, gross world product is about $45 trillion/year.) Think about that. A measurable fraction of the product of the entire world. On one war in one country.
On one hand, it seems far, far better to spend that money on development (assuming it works, or even partially works) than on war. On the other, the amount we're spending on the Iraq war is coming uncomfortably close to bankrupting the US. Could we sustain that kind of financial outlay for the third world for twenty or thirty years? I doubt it. Not without a lot of agony that we're probably not prepared to suck up.
One could ask if it would be pure money down the drain, the way that the Iraq war is. Potentially, you'd get a lot out of the domestic side of the spending (domestic manufacture and workers for export to third world development programs and such). But that's like arguing that wars are good for the economy because of the business they create. Alternatively, it's possible that rising tides raise all ships and that helping the third world would pay off in turn for us. I certainly believe that reducing poverty and disease in the third world would pay off in terms of international stability and increased trade, in enough time. But the actual economic feedback (which is what will ultimately sell any plan of this scale, I think), is debatable.
But as long as I'm ranting anyway (in this entirely inappropriate venue), I should add a final statistic. The US currently spends about 4% of GPD on defense (not counting Iraq, which is by special appropriation, or black budget, which is not publicly accounted). That's more than the entire rest of the world combined (yes, including big scary nations like China). Our lowest military spending since WWII was at the end of Clinton's term, where it dropped to ~3% GDP. In my book, it would be entirely reasonable to drop the Iraq war, reduce military spending back to Clinton-era levels, spend the 0.7% on Sach's plan (assuming we believe it, or partially believe it), and still save money.
End Edit/Rant
Anyway, I can't fully buy into his plans, because I am skeptical about all "this will fix everything" plans. And because I think he is drastically underaccounting for the effects of, say, bad government, racial and tribal tensions, corruption, general cultural attitudes toward property and trade, societal view of the role of government, etc. Some of those will naturally be ameliorated under his plan. (It's amazing how much starvation seems to exacerbate people's tendency to kill each other.) But many are fairly core, and I am skeptical that better roads will magically make them vanish. Attitudes change very slowly, they do have big, measurable impacts on micro- and macro-economic evolution, and we have been way too stung way too often by neglecting them. (Oh, but of course this nation that has not been democratic in thousands of years of recorded history will instantly adopt democracy once we come in and show them the path of glory. I mean, it's an obvious idea, right? And they're crying out for it, right? Yeah.)
Still, I think that the points he makes are good and (partially) compelling. And there's evidence that they'll succeed to some degree -- e.g., I saw some convincing data that Africa was, by and large, doing a great job of growing and improving its general quality of life... Right up until the AIDS epidemic obliterated a huge fraction of its productive populace.
Anyway, even if his plan does not, in fact, eliminate poverty, simply reducing it would be a vast improvement in the state of the world. And I think that it has the potential for such a reduction. A lot of the ideas he proposes are things that I would advocate anyway (e.g., invest in health and reducing/controlling disease). So I would, overall, back his plan I think. How much good it will do, and how much we should really invest in it, are up for debate. But I think that his plans are clearer, more common sense, and generally seem more reasonable than a lot of the development non-plans we've seen over the past few decades.
So, while I have some reservations, I think that this book is definitely worth reading. It's thought-provoking, at the very least.
For an alternate point of view, I also recommend William Easterly's The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. It also discusses the morass of international development fiscal policy. A fascinating read in its own right. More on that later, when I have more time...