I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things,
The hand that mock'd them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains: round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

- "Ozymandias" by P. B. Shelley

O Noble Head! Adorned with the
Tilak and well-groomed hair
You who planned to rule the world
Have become a worthless skull...

(free translation of a famous song from the Malayalam movie "Harishchandra")

Well, well, well...this book is a masterpiece. It's taken me a long time (at least to my standards) to finish the last chapters, but even though Diamond doesn't get to the point as quickly as he could, the read is definetely worht it.
By using collapsed societies' examples, the author explains the factors that determine the success or failure of a society, combining historical knowledge with climatic, biological, antropological and geographical ones.
In risk to oversimplify the book, I'd say that Diamond's whole point is something close to "don't be fucking idiots and take care of the planet".

I collapsed after reading this. What a slog. Good, but dense, detailed, and darn long. I don't particularly care for Jared Diamond's writing style. He's detailed, scholarly, and repetitive. There is so much information I had to take frequent breaks and snatch some quick reads in-between chapters. I almost abandoned it a few times but then I'd find a different chapter interesting and get hooked again. Diamond has solid arguments for explaining why societies collapse and while fascinating, he's overly detailed in spots - at least for me. His thesis shows five factors that influence the collapse of a society: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, decreased support by friendly neighbors, and society's response to environmental problems. The book is full of great information and I can see recommending students to read certain chapters, but not the whole shebang - unless they are persistent readers.

Many of the societies he examines collapsed because of their fragile environments. While Diamond doesn't play judge and is sympathetic toward those who made decisions that were wrong and caused the downfall of their societies from ancient to modern times, he is judgmental against those who obviously don't care about the environment, who "rape-and-run" making quick cash and leave environmental disasters for citizens and governments to clean up. He balances this analysis of greedy businesses with stellar businesses whose good practices show how everyone can benefit when a company creates a product that respects the environment.

"Environmental determinism" looks at the physical environment such as climate and geography trying to determine how it affects societies. This concept has had negative press over the years and has led to some people using racism or superiority of intellect over other cultures based the oppressor being smarter than the suppressed group of people. Diamond is always refuting this and he also takes his studies further looking at multiple aspects of a hypothesis that include climate, geography, botany, science, economics and more. It is one reason his books are so dense and slow to read. But they are fascinating and require thoughtful reflection.

He has quite a few great quotes and I would have expanded on them if my Nook eReader hadn't deleted all my highlights. I will try to remember some from my bad memory. The genocide in Rwanda was a product of land disputes, deforestation, exports, and too many people living in extreme poverty. There was a direct correlation between starvation and increased crime. Diamond explains how the ethnic violence was not based solely on ethnic hatred but tied in with land disputes. The argument is compelling and interesting. Australia's fragile environment is a great chapter to read as well.

Diamond discusses the rarity of a leader who has the courage to anticipate a potential problem and take steps to solve it before it becomes a crisis. "Such leaders expose themselves to criticism or ridicule before it becomes obvious to everyone that some action is necessary." Think of all the leaders you've come across in your life that surround themselves with people that tell them what they want to hear. The ability to listen to criticism and use it constructively and not be corrupted by power is not the norm.

I thought "Collapse" and "Gun, Germs, and Steel" both had first chapters that were hard to get through. This one is too detailed on Montana and slowed the pacing. The ancient societies that collapsed were not quite as interesting as the modern ones as his analysis is more complex because he has more information to prove his hypothesis. The author is quite brilliant and worth reading.

n  They took all the trees, and put em in a tree museum
And they charged the people a dollar and a half to see them
***
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you got 'til it's gone
They paved paradise, and put up a parking lot
Big Yellow Taxi by Joni Mitchelln

This book is the second in a series by this author that began with Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, which I read and reviewed. In that book the author deals with the question of why some societies/people are more successful than others. This book serves as a supplement to that book in that it examines the same question, but here his primary focus is on the environmental factors and the ways that societies respond to them. He gives short histories of various civilizations, both ancient and modern, and the environmental problems that they created or faced. These histories describe civilizations that collapsed or are collapsing and contrasts them with civilizations that succeeded in managing their environment.

There are several environmental factors that affected these civilizations. The list contains things like climate change, soil erosion, water management, overpopulation, introduced foreign pests, toxic wastes, and many others. His main focus is on deforestation, which in many cases contributed to some of the other problems.

Some of the environmental problems can be linked to something the author refers to as the “tragedy of commons.” This is when a community all harvests a resource from a common source, for instance, a forest, a communal pasture for grazing, or the fish in the ocean or a river. Because it is a shared resource, but lacks effective regulation there is no compulsion for an individual to limit their harvest. This has led to many resources being over-harvested and destroyed.

The author does point out some positive trends. He uses a Top-Down and Bottom-Up framework to discuss some success stories. An example of a successful country’s management of their environment is Japan. They realized early that due to their isolation from other countries the people depended on their own natural resources and took steps to prevent things like over-harvesting. In China the government has instituted the one child rule, and also implemented some positive programs to save their environment. These were examples of Top-Down approach in that it was the leaders of the country that implemented the conservation measures. In describing the situation on the South Pacific island of Tikopia he describes a Bottom-Up approach. This civilization had no strong central government so the people themselves implemented measures to save their environment and control population. They made a decision to kill every pig on the island because they were destroying gardens even though they were a source of protein.

He describes the per-capita impact of humans. This is the average resource consumption and waste production of one person. This impact is much higher in First World countries than in Third World countries. However, with the globalization of communication people in Third World countries want the same standard of living as those they see living in First World countries. This impact is also increasing due to increased immigration to First World countries and the subsequent assumption of their living standard. One observer is quoted as saying “The apocalypse here will not take the form of an earthquake or hurricane, but of a world buried in garbage.” (Page 351)

Just like maintaining the health of our bodies, preventing environmental messes is cheaper in the long run. The financial costs resulting from people getting sick from air pollution, the increase in prices due to the destruction of fish habitat, the time spent in traffic, the cleanup of toxic chemicals, and the lack of clean water can run into the billions. The horrific view is that if ancient civilizations collapsed due to environmental problems with their primitive tools and relatively small populations, what impact might we have with our heavy machinery and nuclear power.

This was a very educational read for me. In addition to learning a context in which to think about our environmental problems, I learned valuable lessons in the histories of some civilizations which I doubt I would have ever read. However, the book did become a slog at times. Many of the histories seemed to repeat things and it got a little wordy. The Norse settlement in Greenland lasted about 500 years and it seemed to take that long to read.

This is an important book. Unlike the Norse of Greenland, or the Polynesian natives on Easter Island, we cannot plea ignorance of our environmental problems. Unfortunately many people who make some of those decisions choose to ignore this problem. As the author points out a few times (and I paraphrase):

n  The rich and powerful only earn the privilege of being the last ones to starve.n

I like the choice of the word "choose" in the sub-title. While the world collapses around us, too many Americans think our problems are abortion, prayer in school, terrorism, immigration, and a lot of other not-shit issues. Meanwhile we have completely ignored issues like renewable energy, sustainable cities, and mass transportation. We are going to make Easter Island and the Norse settlements in Greenland look like the most well thought out societies in history because, baby, when we go down, we are going down hard. And we are choosing to do so. I guess we are all too busy with "So You Think You Can Dance" to give much thought to our collective futures.

A thorough and thoroughly depressing analysis of how societies past and presents have overpopulated, eaten, deforested, fought, and generally short-sighted and stubborned their way out of their own survival. "Oh, but that was then, now we're smarter and have ever better technology" - yeah, but uhm, we're not, and our better technologies are bringing their own host of massive, massive environmental issues. If the Easter Islanders managed to go extinct while armed with axes, we're able to do it so much more efficiently now. Very interesting, very depressing.

One of Cambridge Sustainability's Top 50 Books for Sustainability, as voted for by our alumni network of over 3,000 senior leaders from around the world. To find out more, click here.

Collapse examines various societies throughout history that have collapsed (Easter Island, Pitcairn, the Maya, Anasazi, the Vikings/Norse in Greenland) and compares these to societies that faced similar conditions and yet succeeded (Japan, New Guinea Highlands, the Vikings/Norse in Iceland). Diamond identifies five factors that define collapse or success.

Looking specifically at environmental impacts, Diamond identifies various forms of historical 'ecocide', including deforestation and habitat destruction, soil problems (erosion, salinisation and loss of soil fertility), water management problems, overhunting, overfishing, the effects of introduced species on native species, human population growth and increased per capita impact of people. There is evidence of all these dangers in modern society.

Although I only gave this book three stars, I can recommend it a little bit over that. I found it interesting, but not quite as compelling as I might have if I wasn’t already familiar with some parts of the story. I took graduate classes in International Relations, specializing in China as well as international political economy, so I didn’t find any surprises in the abstract background to Collapse.

Some very intriguing parts were the stories of collapse of vanished societies, as many have noted in other reviews. But also quite enjoyable were the explanations for why others did not collapse, especially the near-miss of the Tokugawa Shogunate as prosperity almost led them to devastate their forests — it is almost an accident of history that the Japanese home islands aren’t as barren as Easter Island.

The chapter on modern Australia was also quite eye-opening. After reading this litany of miseries, all I can say to my Australian friends is “Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.” I think everyone living on the edge of the Pacific Ocean needs to spend more time studying the ENSO — El Niño Southern Oscillation. It will certainly have a major impact on California, too.

Perhaps my favorite portion of the book were Chapters 14 and 15, in which Diamond explores societal responses to these threats.

Chapter 14 is titled “Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions?” and begins with a tidy discussion of decision theory and cognitive biases. I suspect a professional Decision Theorist might scoff at the oversimplification and lacunae of his explanation, but Diamond can place it in a riveting real-world context that cements how a careful analysis can help us understand such twisted and paradoxical situations. (In this I am reminded of the fascinating classic n  Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisisn.)

This chapter allowed him to answer a question he was asked by a student: “When that person cut down the last palm tree on Easter Island, what on earth could they have been thinking?” turns out to have a rather obvious answer: by the time that last palm was cut down, centuries of deforestation had already taken place, and the crucial cultural importance of those trees would have long since disappeared.

Chapter 15, “Big Business and the Environment,” is also quite absorbing. Diamond contrasts the very different environmental impact of two oil fields, and continues with the particular problems of hardrock mining, coal mining, logging and fisheries. His inquiry into why some corporations and industries are are more amenable to social pressure casts a minor hopeful note into the symphony of despair.

There are a few complaints that need to be aired.

First, Diamond could really use a forceful editor with an eye towards clarity. The professor is very prolix, with a pedantic tendency to repeat himself. For example, every time Diamond referred to palynology, he felt compelled to explain it again. In such a large book which undoubtedly took many years to compose, this is understandable — but not in the final draft. That’s why editors are supposed to employed. Perhaps asking him to be succinct is asking too much, but it would be nice to nudge him in that direction.

Second, while his “Further Reading” appendix is welcome, it doesn’t excuse the lack of a bibliography, especially since index doesn’t seem to cover that appendix.

Finally, the book starts out on a weak note in Montana. His affection for the Bitterroot Valley is understandable, but its problems are nowhere near as engrossing and dramatic as those that follow, and the relevance of a struggling rural community tucked deep inside the world’s wealthiest nation makes it hard to understand its relevance. It would have been best left to personalize and clarify a concluding chapter, perhaps, although the chapter on Australia did a more than adequate job of showing how pressing the threats of collapse can be in a modern first-world society.

In the end, while this book was adequately absorbing, it didn’t bring me much closer to my quest. No book I’ve yet found has adequately discussed the question “How likely is it that the entire global civilization will collapse in the coming century, leading to centuries of a new ‘dark age’ of reduced life expectancy, welfare and technology?”
­

Van ugye az a mondás, hogy tanulhatnánk az elődeinktől, de hát mi ignoráljuk azt, viszont Jared Diamond nem (de ő mégiscak a UCLA földrajz professzora), több civilizáció összeomlásának párhuzamait vizsgálja. Ez maga nem lenne újdonság, de ő egyrészt elég távolról nézi, a megszokottól több irányból, a külső ellenségeken kívül nemcsak a társadalom szerkezetét, hanem az ökológiai jellemzőket, klímaváltozást és a szomszédokkal való kapcsolatot is vizsgálja, miközben képes lemenni egészen az egyén szempontjáig is, ha kell. Innen már csak egy lépés persze, hogy tudatosan tegyünk az összeomlás ellen, mert elkerülhető, nem kell a spanyolviaszt újra és újra feltalálni
Diamond bámulatra méltó tárgyi tudással rendelkezik és ténylegesen van tanítái rutinja, nagyon feszes, logikus szerkezetű a könyv, az adatok interdiszciplináris összefüggéseire mindig rávilágít, miközben pont jókor, pont a jó mennyiségben oldja valami személyes élménnyell, történettel, viccel az egész merevségét. Mesél Montanáról, aminek a változásait közelről látja, után régi társadalmakat elemez, amelyek a fénykoruk után megszűntek, többek között a maják, a Húsvét-szigetek társadalma, vagy a vikingek. A harmadik fejezetben pár modern társadalom folyamatait cincálja szét, ruandai népirtás, Haiti és Dominika, Kína és Ausztrália.
A könyv anyagát Diamond tanította egy-két egyetemen (vagy a tananyagból lett a könyv?), és igen, ez oda való, minden egyetemen kellene tanítani, sok kredittel, kemény számonkéréssel, a könyvben leírtakkal minden egyes diplomás embernek tisztában kellene lennie.

След “Пушки, вируси и стомана” нямах никакво желание отново да чета Даймънд, докато не изрових в дъното на едно шкафче това забравено дебело издание, отлежало кротко едни 6-7 години. Спогледахме се, и се разгърнахме.

Оказа се по-интересно от очакваното. Даймънд тук определено се появи в амплоато си на еколог (Природата има значение!) и малтусиснец (ресурсите растат в аритметична прогресия, а населението - в геометрична) едновременно. Тезата му е близка до реалностите днес: провалените общества изчерпват и оглозгват наличните си природни ресурси като ято хищни скакалци без капка мисъл за бъдещето, и в резултат се озовават в пустош, която се пренаселва с гладни и впоследствие озверели човешки същества. Краят е удавен в кръв и войни. Успешните общества правят обратното - щадят природата било в малки, децентрализирани и сплотени общности, или в силни и централизирани държави със стабилна и ефективна законова рамка по въпроса.

Даймънд се е захванал да го онагледи с примери от миналото и настоящето. Някои са силни и нагледни като теорията му за обитателите на Великденския остров, чиято висока култура деградира и се изражда в кръвопролития, канибализъм и загуба на умения след като отсичат и последното си високо дърво и сами се лишават от инструментите, които природата им дава (канута за далечни плавания, обитаващи животински видове, обилни реколти). “Открилите” ги през 18 век холандци заварват бледи, жалки подобия на хората, издигнали величествените статуи моаи. Тази теза ми прозвуча доста смислено и беше разгърната убедително. За разлика от други примери, като например за доста по-голямата цивилизация на маите, където за основен виновник за срива на цивилизацията през 10 век е посочена сушата. Твърде много уговорки, предположения и спекулации размиват картината.

В настоящето примерите на Даймънд за по-малки общества отново са по-силни. Неочакван и много тъжен е погледът към геноцида в Руанда, където освен колониализма, старата етническа вражда между хуту и тутси и зловещото масово насилие в една рухнала държава, като основен фактор се посочва страхотното пренаселване върху разграбена и обедняла земя. Да, но някъде по пътя отпаднаха многобройните съпътстващи фактори от немалтусианско естество… Друг съвременник в унищожаването на природата - Китай - е глобално явление само по себе си, защото рано или късно китайските проблеми просто стават световни при население от 1,3 милиарда души. Но материалът на Даймънд е повърхностен и може да се прочете във всяко реномирано списание.

Добрите примери отново са силни за малкия мащаб - като малките новогвинейска общности, упражнявали лесовъдство с “питомни” дървета казуарини. Но за големи мащаби като средновековна Япония е като да откриеш под вола теле. Да, шогуните въвеждат квоти в дърводобива и производството на предмети от дърво (един бедняк няма право да му се изработи малка кутийка от скъпа дървесина, един даймио обаче може да си построи замък с такава, но пък въди горска плантация). Обаче Даймънд отрича ролята на културните фактори като източноазиатската обич към природата, пропита в духовните течения и религии. Да не говорим, че на места има потресаващи твърдения като това, че ужасяващата индийска кастова система е страшно природосъобразна, защото…възпитава дългосрочен интерес към природата! Ако си в кастата на рибарите и няма мърдане към друга каста - щеш, не щеш щадиш рибите, защото те са занаята и на пра-пра-внуците ти! По-идиотска теза от иначе интелигентен писател не бях чела.

Последната част е вид обобщение, което е доста несвързано с предните примери. Има интересни моменти като например защо металодобивът всъщност е по-голям замърсител от нефтодобива. Но тази последна част спокойно би могла да е отделна кратка книга и нищо няма да загуби, просто е кратък обзор сама по себе си.

Посланието за ролята на природата е ценно, но по мое мнение анализът често е нагоден към основната теза, вместо тезата да е резултат от анализа. Пропуснати са усложняващи политически, културни, религиозни фактори. Самата теза иначе е смислена и благородна.

——
▶️ Цитати:

“…има два типа решения, които могат да предопределят и крайния изход (успеха или провала): това са дългосрочното планиране и своевременната преоценка на наличните ценности.”

“…няма друга планета, към която да се обърнем за помощ или където да изнесем проблемите си.”

“…времената се менят, обществото се изправя и пред този избор - кое от миналото си струва да бъде запазвано и с кое да се раздели, ако иска да има и бъдеще.”

“…най-често обществата не се и опитват да решат проблема, макар да го виждат ясно.”

“…китайските проблеми автоматично се превръщат в световни.”

“…хората се дразнят от обясненията, защото ги приемат като извинения.”

This would have been a better book at about half the length. Diamond is a devotee of that style that is heavily promoted for oral presentations – say what you are going to say, say it using bullets for emphasis and clarity, and say what you just said by way of summary. The dreaded PowerPoint syndrome, in other words. So, when ploughing through the admittedly interesting and illuminating chapters, I found I was waiting each time for the Five Points That Indicate Society’s Success or Failure, and yes, I was not disappointed, for every chapter has the same structure. Example cascades over example; it’s not that the message is wrong or untimely, but it’s so relentless!

The ultimate point of Collapse is of course to highlight the parallels with our own society and perhaps provide a sort of roadmap for the future. But for all of his conclusions that there is hope for us, he really does not provide much evidence, so the end is a bit of an anticlimax.

Collapse was written before our own latest financial “collapse” in 2008. It would have been interesting to know what Diamond’s thoughts about that were, and I had hoped the epilogue written in that year might have addressed that. But no, the extra pages about Angkor Wat really adds nothing to the book.

I did read at least half of this book. The section on Easter Island is one of the most memorable things I've read in the past few years, and I'd recommend it to anyone.

This book goes on my guilt shelf because shortly after he got to China, I got too depressed to continue. It's also a bit heavy (literally) for subway reading, and returning to New York from California with it combined with the prospect of learning about China's impact on the environment was just too much for this reader.... So Collapse is sitting on my real-life, non-virtual bookshelf with a JetBlue boaring pass marking my place, frozen in time like the artifact of some extinct civilization.

If I were really to make a comprehensive shelf of Books I Feel Like a Lazy Jerk for Not Having Read, Guns, Germs and Steel would also be on it.